Tim Sheehy’s Chances of Beating Jon Tester in Crucial Montana Senate Race

Montana Democratic Senator Jon Tester is locked in a close election race against Republican Tim Sheehy in a battle that could determine which party controls the Senate, according to recent polls.
Control of the Senate may hinge on the Montana race. Although the state has a solid Republican lean, Tester has proven over the years to be a candidate who can outrun other Democrats, securing his third term in 2018. But 2024 may be a more difficult year, due to higher turnout in a state that is expected to easily back former President Donald Trump in the White House race against Vice President Kamala Harris.
Democrats, however, cannot afford to lose Tester’s seat without picking up another seat. Democrats currently hold a narrow Senate majority of 51-49, and are not making a major play for the seat being vacated by Democratic West Virginia Joe Manchin, as the state is viewed as among the most conservative in the country.
This means they must hold onto every other Senate seat they currently hold or flip a seat elsewhere in order to have a chance to keep control of the chamber. Their best opportunities outside of Montana are Florida and Texas, but the Republican incumbents in those contests are viewed as having the advantage over their Democratic challengers.
On Friday, a new survey from Republican-leaning pollster Rasmussen Reports showed Sheehy with a lead over Tester. The poll, conducted among 835 likely voters from August 13 to August 20, found Sheehy leading Tester by seven points. Fifty percent of respondents said they would vote for Sheehy, while 43 percent said they would back Tester.
The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. Notably, many political analysts view Rasmussen as having a strong conservative tilt.
Other polls have found that the race will be close in November, with several suggesting Sheehy may have an advantage over Tester.
An American Pulse Research & Polling survey, sponsored by Billings-based TV station KULR, found Sheehy with a 6-point lead (51 percent to 45 percent). The poll surveyed 538 registered voters from August 10 to August 12.
An additional four percent of voters said they are still unsure how of they’ll vote in November. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
Meanwhile, an Emerson College poll, which surveyed 1,000 likely voters from August 5 to August 6, found Sheely with a 2-point lead (48 percent to 46 percent).
Some polls have been better for Tester.
An RMG Research poll, sponsored by the Napolitan Institute, found Tester with a 3-point lead (49 percent to 46 percent). It surveyed 540 registered voters from August 6 to August 14.
It found that Tester is substantially running ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris, who trailed Trump by 18 points in the presidential race in the survey (57 percent to 39 percent).
The Cook Political Report classifies the race as a tossup.
Democrats appear to be well-positioned in other races where they currently hold the seat.
Democratic incumbents in battleground states Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have held steady leads over their Republican challengers. According to FiveThirtyEight, Republican challengers have not led a single public, high-quality poll in any of those states this cycle.
In Arizona and Michigan, two seats with retiring incumbents in swing states, Democratic Representatives Ruben Gallego and Elissa Slotkin have also held a polling lead.
Ohio, a former swing state that has shifted toward Republicans, is viewed as Republican’s next-best chance at flipping a seat.
However, Democratic incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown has held a lead over Republican Bernie Moreno. The most recent poll of the race, conducted by ActiVote among 400 likely voters from July 20 to August 12, found Brown with a 5-point lead (53 percent to 48 percent).